Denmark’s future climate
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Denmark’s future climate

More precipitation, more wind, more heat
Denmark will be seeing a warmer and wetter climate and more extreme weather events in future. Based on the Fifth Assessment Report from the IPCC the most important changes expected are:

 

  • More rain. More rain in winter and less in summer. The summer season will include both periods of drought and heavier downpours.
  • Milder winters. Milder and more humid winters. The growing season of plants may be prolonged.
  • Warmer summers. Warmer summers with a risk of more and longer heath waves.
  • Higher water levels. A general increase in water levels is expected for the seas around Denmark.
  • More wind. More powerful storms can be expected.
  • Greater cloud cover. Generally a slight increase in the cloud cover, more so in winter.

 

In November 2014, the IPCC published its fifth assessment report. The conclusions of this report have been incorporated into the projections of climate change presented here. You can read more about the future climate in Denmark in the most recent report (October 2014) from the Danish Meteorological Institute (in Danish with English abstract).  Click on the link to the right to read the report. 

 

Climate change up to 2050
For the period up to 2050, Denmark will experience the general changes to its climate shown in the two tables below.

 

 

Climate change in Denmark calculated with the Danish Meteorological Institute's regional climate model HIRHAM5 on the basis of projections carried out with the global climate model ECHAM5 in connection with the EU project ENSEMBLES. All figures in the table show changes for the period 2021/2050 relative to the normal period 1961/1990.

 

Climate change in the long term
In the long term, the magnitude of changes in climate will depend on how much greenhouse gas is emitted globally in the decades to come.

 

The government's recommendations for choice of scenario are based on the IPCC's fifth assessment report from 2014 and on the Danish Meteorological Institute's scaling to Danish conditions.



The figures for the A1B scenario show the calculated Danish climate changes expressed as changes relative to the period 1961 to 1990, while the figures for the RCP scenarios are changes relative to the period 1986 to 2005. Source: CMIP5 and ENSEMBLES.

As is evident from the table, expected precipitation in summer will increase according to the A1B scenario, whereas it will fall according to the other scenarios. This difference can be attributed to the fact that Denmark is situated between two zones with expected increases and decreases in summer precipitation respectively. The differences reflect the uncertainty of the figures.

More extreme weather
The climate models show that we will experience more extreme weather events in Denmark in the future. This table shows indicators of extremes for the A1B scenario:


table4.png
Climate parameters for Denmark. A number of climate parameters have been stated for 1990, 2050 and 2100. The figures in the three columns represent means over the periods: 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The uncertainty indicates the ensemble-based standard deviation for the ensemble mean value.

Senest redigeret: 10-04-2015